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Post by Stew on Oct 12, 2024 12:39:23 GMT
Polls and betting markets both have their uses for predicting the election, alongside historical precedent, economic headwinds, and a ton of other stuff. All of them have their strengths and weaknesses. The best predictors put them all into one algorithm and come up with percentage possibilities. Nate Silver has done that and, predictably, found that the election is a tossup - 55% of the time Harris wins, 45% of the time Trump wins. It's tight as hell and any October Surprise could change it. Maybe the hurricane is that. One thing worth noting is the 55/45 is percentage chances of winning the Electoral College. Harris has a much higher chance than Trump of winning more actual votes, like Clinton did in 2016 and Biden in 2020. The Electoral College system isn't fit for the modern day. As loathsome as Trump is, he may have one benefit- the October surprise is over. Fake stories about people eating dogs, sending his pal Vlad covid kits etc would have previously buried a candidate’s chances. These barely make the daily list of insane shit him and his cult cook up. |
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Post by redcase on Oct 12, 2024 13:23:49 GMT
Polls and betting markets both have their uses for predicting the election, alongside historical precedent, economic headwinds, and a ton of other stuff. All of them have their strengths and weaknesses. The best predictors put them all into one algorithm and come up with percentage possibilities. Nate Silver has done that and, predictably, found that the election is a tossup - 55% of the time Harris wins, 45% of the time Trump wins. It's tight as hell and any October Surprise could change it. Maybe the hurricane is that. One thing worth noting is the 55/45 is percentage chances of winning the Electoral College. Harris has a much higher chance than Trump of winning more actual votes, like Clinton did in 2016 and Biden in 2020. The Electoral College system isn't fit for the modern day. As loathsome as Trump is, he may have one benefit- the October surprise is over. Fake stories about people eating dogs, sending his pal Vlad covid kits etc would have previously buried a candidate’s chances. These barely make the daily list of insane shit him and his cult cook up. He’s served up a new one - diseased migrants roaming the streets apparently. |
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Post by Jayrannasaurus on Oct 14, 2024 6:20:20 GMT
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Post by johnboy14 on Oct 17, 2024 5:52:58 GMT
Whatever you think of Musks politics, watching a 200ft rocket booster descend from the heavens and get caught in mid-air by a tower is mind blowing and an example of what can be done in America. Talking about headers like Trump and Harris instead of that achievement is ridiculous.
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Post by Jayrannasaurus on Oct 17, 2024 8:12:58 GMT
Whatever you think of Musks politics, watching a 200ft rocket booster descend from the heavens and get caught in mid-air by a tower is mind blowing and an example of what can be done in America. Talking about headers like Trump and Harris instead of that achievement is ridiculous. The fact that the US government didn't even congratulate / acknowledge it is weird, it's a massive achievement for humankind. Also, bit of a "testy" Fox interview for Harris last night. Apparently Harris staffers pressed Baier to end the interview 15 mins earlier than planned. |
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Post by johnboy14 on Oct 17, 2024 11:03:56 GMT
Whatever you think of Musks politics, watching a 200ft rocket booster descend from the heavens and get caught in mid-air by a tower is mind blowing and an example of what can be done in America. Talking about headers like Trump and Harris instead of that achievement is ridiculous. The fact that the US government didn't even congratulate / acknowledge it is weird, it's a massive achievement for humankind. Also, bit of a "testy" Fox interview for Harris last night. Apparently Harris staffers pressed Baier to end the interview 15 mins earlier than planned. It's hugely disrespectful. It is an American company and all that's been built primarily by American engineers. They used to give people ticker tape parades for those achievements. |
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Post by Jayrannasaurus on Oct 17, 2024 11:06:21 GMT
The fact that the US government didn't even congratulate / acknowledge it is weird, it's a massive achievement for humankind. Also, bit of a "testy" Fox interview for Harris last night. Apparently Harris staffers pressed Baier to end the interview 15 mins earlier than planned. It's hugely disrespectful. It is an American company and all that's been built primarily by American engineers. They used to give people ticker tape parades for those achievements. Even more jarring when you realize his company's tech will be bailing out NASA's astronauts that are stranded in space. |
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Post by Stew on Oct 17, 2024 16:48:24 GMT
Whatever you think of Musks politics, watching a 200ft rocket booster descend from the heavens and get caught in mid-air by a tower is mind blowing and an example of what can be done in America. Talking about headers like Trump and Harris instead of that achievement is ridiculous. The fact that the US government didn't even congratulate / acknowledge it is weird, it's a massive achievement for humankind. Also, bit of a "testy" Fox interview for Harris last night. Apparently Harris staffers pressed Baier to end the interview 15 mins earlier than planned. And by ‘apparently’ you mean according to Fox News. Now do Trump’s appearance on 60 minutes. Oh sorry, I forgot, he chickened out. |
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Post by Jayrannasaurus on Oct 17, 2024 17:02:25 GMT
The fact that the US government didn't even congratulate / acknowledge it is weird, it's a massive achievement for humankind. Also, bit of a "testy" Fox interview for Harris last night. Apparently Harris staffers pressed Baier to end the interview 15 mins earlier than planned. And by ‘apparently’ you mean according to Fox News. No, I mean according too Bret Baier. I've watched the entire thing this evening, Baier reiterates three times in the last two minutes that he's being wrapped to end the interview. Harris also arrived 15 minutes late, which cut into the time some more. Suppose you could see Baier as an extention of Fox News, but often these hosts develop a personality / identity of their own (e.g. Tucker Carlson, Chris Cuomo). Never really watched any of Baier, always just thought he looked like a bit of a caricature. |
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Post by Stew on Oct 17, 2024 17:32:33 GMT
And by ‘apparently’ you mean according to Fox News. No, I mean according too Bret Baier. I've watched the entire thing this evening, Baier reiterates three times in the last two minutes that he's being wrapped to end the interview. Harris also arrived 15 minutes late, which cut into the time some more. Suppose you could see Baier as an extention of Fox News, but often these hosts develop a personality / identity of their own (e.g. Tucker Carlson, Chris Cuomo). Never really watched any of Baier, always just thought he looked like a bit of a caricature. That’d be Brett Baier, the chief political anchor of? |
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Post by Jayrannasaurus on Oct 17, 2024 17:35:53 GMT
x.com/CollinRugg/status/1846693865564364801No, I mean according too Bret Baier. I've watched the entire thing this evening, Baier reiterates three times in the last two minutes that he's being wrapped to end the interview. Harris also arrived 15 minutes late, which cut into the time some more. Suppose you could see Baier as an extention of Fox News, but often these hosts develop a personality / identity of their own (e.g. Tucker Carlson, Chris Cuomo). Never really watched any of Baier, always just thought he looked like a bit of a caricature. That’d be Brett Baier, the chief political anchor of? Ah, I see - it's because he's an extension of Fox News (who are right/GOP-leaning). If you think that invalidates the entire interview and what Harris delivered in response, then fair enough man! To be clear, I literally open Fox News and CNN to get right/GOP and left/Dem perspectives, respectively, on the same issues (mostly just the headlines, and how things are positioned). I get where you're coming from. Lately I'm only looking at AP / Al Jazeera for news breakdowns, the former particularly feels devoid of major ulterior influence. |
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Post by Stew on Oct 17, 2024 18:15:48 GMT
That’d be Brett Baier, the chief political anchor of? Ah, I see - it's because he's an extension of Fox News (who are right/GOP-leaning). If you think that invalidates the entire interview and what Harris delivered in response, then fair enough man! To be clear, I literally open Fox News and CNN to get right/GOP and left/Dem perspectives, respectively, on the same issues (mostly just the headlines, and how things are positioned). I get where you're coming from. Lately I'm only looking at AP / Al Jazeera for news breakdowns, the former particularly feels devoid of major ulterior influence. If you want to believe the political anchor of Fox about her aides desperately trying to end an interview early then fair enough. A lot of people would have their doubts. |
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Post by Jayrannasaurus on Oct 17, 2024 18:41:55 GMT
Ah, I see - it's because he's an extension of Fox News (who are right/GOP-leaning). If you think that invalidates the entire interview and what Harris delivered in response, then fair enough man! To be clear, I literally open Fox News and CNN to get right/GOP and left/Dem perspectives, respectively, on the same issues (mostly just the headlines, and how things are positioned). I get where you're coming from. Lately I'm only looking at AP / Al Jazeera for news breakdowns, the former particularly feels devoid of major ulterior influence. If you want to believe the political anchor of Fox about her aides desperately trying to end an interview early then fair enough. A lot of people would have their doubts. Totally fair. Not sure if you saw the pre-edited/redacted version of the 60 Minutes interview that Harris did - which is currently subject to an FCC complaint to release the entire transcript. It was pretty brutal, too. |
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Post by Stew on Oct 17, 2024 19:11:48 GMT
If you want to believe the political anchor of Fox about her aides desperately trying to end an interview early then fair enough. A lot of people would have their doubts. Totally fair. Not sure if you saw the pre-edited/redacted version of the 60 Minutes interview that Harris did - which is currently subject to an FCC complaint to release the entire transcript. It was pretty brutal, too. At least she did it. |
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Post by Jayrannasaurus on Oct 17, 2024 20:03:37 GMT
Totally fair. Not sure if you saw the pre-edited/redacted version of the 60 Minutes interview that Harris did - which is currently subject to an FCC complaint to release the entire transcript. It was pretty brutal, too. At least she did it. Honestly, I'd be pretty intrigued if the answers from the candidate I was voting for were so heavily edited before release that it looked like a different interview. Had a chat with my manager this AM, a vastly experienced lawyer based in DC (who is still voting Dem, btw) - he basically said "I'm not sure Harris 'won' that exchange, but overall it felt like the USA lost". She's essentially the incumbent, and if Trump were to un-alive she'd be president in November. |
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