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Post by Stew on Aug 29, 2024 15:42:48 GMT
I find this idea the Republicans will win comfortably utterly bizarre to be honest. There is absolutely nothing to back that up, not in recent polls, which even Fox had to show yesterday. She’s ahead in virtually all of the swing states now and is continuing to surge ahead. Trump’s greatest hits approach have failed and he has little or nothing left. The only party that has any chance of winning comfortably is the Democrats. I think it’ll be close, I think Trump will desperately try to cheat and refuse to accept the results (remember he’s going to jail for a long time when he does lose) but all the signs are pointing towards Harris. Should probably stop trusting polls as the benchmark for who will win, because each media outlet showing a poll will usually favor the side they lean on or is meant to scare the intended viewer into acting. I’m showing polls as a benchmark as to why this will be close.
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Post by unitedsotex on Aug 29, 2024 15:48:30 GMT
Should probably stop trusting polls as the benchmark for who will win, because each media outlet showing a poll will usually favor the side they lean on or is meant to scare the intended viewer into acting. I’m showing polls as a benchmark as to why this will be close. Understood. Last landslide victory for a US president hasn't been since 1988 Bush Sr. so anyone saying it will be a landslide is foolish. If it did happen, I would highly question the validity of it regardless if Trump or Harris wins.
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Post by Jayrannasaurus on Aug 29, 2024 16:15:01 GMT
I disagree, but let's see what happens. MSM polls are notoriously bad, but I've kept an eye on Polymarket for some time. Still pretty close there. For the record, I dislike both of them! I’m not saying Trump can’t win. But he’s winning nothing ‘comfortably’. Oh absolutely, I should have phrased it differently as the chances of anyone winning such an utterly two-party election "comfortably" is slim. I think in 2020 Biden was tracking at around 4/5% above Trump in the MSM polls, and it literally came down to tens of thousands of votes in that case. I genuinely don't give much credence to the MSM polls, they are basically owned by the Dems. The Covid government-driven censorship (see Zuck's recent admissions), the continuous flood of US taxpayer funds to the Ukraine war in spite of a disastrous cost of living crisis, added to the border situation, is why I think the Dems will find it harder than is being made out on CNN et al. Add that to the Dems suing RFK in 10+ states to get him off the ballot, alongside the Green Party complaining about further lawfare to get them off the ballot in many states, and it looks like the Dems are pretty undemocratic at this point in time. Also, keep in mind they basically elected Kamala Harris as candidate without a primary (remember what they did to Bernie Sanders?). I dislike Trump, I think Kamala is a nowhere candidate.
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Post by unitedsotex on Aug 29, 2024 16:47:16 GMT
I’m not saying Trump can’t win. But he’s winning nothing ‘comfortably’. Oh absolutely, I should have phrased it differently as the chances of anyone winning such an utterly two-party election "comfortably" is slim. I think in 2020 Biden was tracking at around 4/5% above Trump in the MSM polls, and it litterly came down to tens of thousands of votes in that case. I genuinely don't give much credence to the MSM polls, they are basically owned by the Dems. The Covid government-driven censorship (see Zuck's recent admissions), the continuous flood of US taxpayer funds to the Ukraine war in spite of a disastrous cost of living crisis, added to the border situation, is why I think the Dems will find it harder than is being made out on CNN et al. Add that to the Dems suing RFK in 10+ states to get him off the ballot, alongside the Green Party complaining about further lawfare to get them off the ballot in many states, and it looks like the Dems are pretty undemocratic at this point in time. Also, keep in mind they basically elected Kamala Harris as candidate without a primary (remember what they did to Bernie Sanders?). I dislike Trump, I think Kamala is a nowhere candidate. Wasn't a fan of some of Bernie's political stances but how they railroaded him was foul.
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Post by Jayrannasaurus on Aug 29, 2024 17:25:16 GMT
Wasn't a fan of some of Bernie's political stances but how they railroaded him was foul. And people just totally forget that. He was popular too. All of these recent additions to Trump's side were Democrats in the past. The party has substantially changed from what it was when I was growing up, that's for sure.
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Post by Jayrannasaurus on Sept 5, 2024 5:39:02 GMT
I think the momentum has decidedly shifted, especially in the swing states.
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Post by Stew on Sept 5, 2024 9:43:07 GMT
I think the momentum has decidedly shifted, especially in the swing states. To who? Just curious as I haven’t really been following it closely for the last few weeks.
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Post by Jayrannasaurus on Sept 5, 2024 9:54:25 GMT
Trump.
Think he'll win Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia based on current trend. That basically gets him to 270 E/C votes and the White House.
Not helping Harris + Waltz that they've done a single, pre-recorded and partially redacted (non-live) interview. It was also very vanilla, and the response was mixed to negative.
Trump + Vance nearing 40 interviews, and Trump has also been on the podcast trail (Theo Von, Lex Fridman etc) - bigger numbers than television audiences.
Polymarket seeing a gap widen, too.
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Post by redcase on Sept 5, 2024 12:01:01 GMT
If the Theo Von, Lex Fridman and Joe Rogan demographics are going to determine the American presidency, then America needs to shut down and start over.
I harked back a bit - Polymarket got the 2020 election wrong. They predicted Trump bigly. They also predicted a Hilary win in 2016.
Its quite hard to call this one though. I somehow get the feeling Americans are hesitant to allow a woman occupying the White House.
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Post by Jayrannasaurus on Sept 5, 2024 12:16:47 GMT
If the Theo Von, Lex Fridman and Joe Rogan demographics are going to determine the American presidency, then America needs to shut down and start over. Be careful what you wish for, haha! These audiences are mostly younger generation voters, of which there are many (their followings dwarf TV viewing numbers). I can see the trend towards a Trump win getting even stronger as we move towards November. I see almost the entire Waltz family has endorsed Trump, too Have doubts whether the establishment will actually allow Trump to win the presidency, don't be surprised if some drastic event happens before/after that totally blows the lid off.
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Post by redcase on Sept 5, 2024 12:27:59 GMT
If the Theo Von, Lex Fridman and Joe Rogan demographics are going to determine the American presidency, then America needs to shut down and start over. Be careful what you wish for, haha! These audiences are mostly younger generation voters, of which there are many (their followings dwarf TV viewing numbers). I can see the trend towards a Trump win getting even stronger as we move towards November. I see almost the entire Waltz family has endorsed Trump, too Have doubts whether the establishment will actually allow Trump to win the presidency, don't be surprised if some drastic event happens before/after that totally blows the lid off. You mean the part of the family tree that can't spell? I saw that - grand irony being that they're a teacher's family. I think Walz will be okay without them. I find it strange that there exist people who actually like JD Vance though. That man looks straight out of American Psycho.
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Post by Jayrannasaurus on Sept 5, 2024 12:33:23 GMT
Yeah, look.
I've long since stopped trying to figure out what drives US voters to these characters. To reiterate, both Trump and Harris are poor candidates to me.
Would have favoured Tulsi Gabbard or Nicole Shanahan (both former democrats), but alas.
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Post by traffordbrown on Sept 5, 2024 13:03:56 GMT
Yeah, look. I've long since stopped trying to figure out what drives US voters to these characters. To reiterate, both Trump and Harris are poor candidates to me. Would have favoured Tulsi Gabbard or Nicole Shanahan (both former democrats), but alas. I really like Tulsi.
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Post by mightyez on Sept 5, 2024 15:54:54 GMT
Trump. Think he'll win Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia based on current trend. That basically gets him to 270 E/C votes and the White House. Not helping Harris + Waltz that they've done a single, pre-recorded and partially redacted (non-live) interview. It was also very vanilla, and the response was mixed to negative. Trump + Vance nearing 40 interviews, and Trump has also been on the podcast trail (Theo Von, Lex Fridman etc) - bigger numbers than television audiences. Polymarket seeing a gap widen, too. The big thing is that Trump is putting in work right now, he is who he is, doesn't care what he says. Harris is being heavily protected/filtered by the party right now, they gotta or she has to get out there and quell all talk of being a puppet etc. Reality is that whatever happens in that country affects the world
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Post by Jayrannasaurus on Sept 5, 2024 17:54:55 GMT
Trump. Think he'll win Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia based on current trend. That basically gets him to 270 E/C votes and the White House. Not helping Harris + Waltz that they've done a single, pre-recorded and partially redacted (non-live) interview. It was also very vanilla, and the response was mixed to negative. Trump + Vance nearing 40 interviews, and Trump has also been on the podcast trail (Theo Von, Lex Fridman etc) - bigger numbers than television audiences. Polymarket seeing a gap widen, too. The big thing is that Trump is putting in work right now, he is who he is, doesn't care what he says. Harris is being heavily protected/filtered by the party right now, they gotta or she has to get out there and quell all talk of being a puppet etc. Reality is that whatever happens in that country affects the world At the moment, Trump is becoming predictably more relatable as he's an actual human person speaking in real-time, actively engaging with other people who ask him questions. Kamala looks to be actively avoiding the press. This will only snowball. Sort of expecting a huge black swan event stopping Trump from actually becoming president, though.
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