www.whoscored.com/Articles/2pt04x-xhkwfi-vlinlh6q/Show/Player-Focus-De-Gea-on-the-Road-to-Emulating-Waning-Casillas-PrimeIt wasn’t quite a passing of the torch, but it was at least a flicker of the future. Many around the Spanish camp believe it is a decision that should have been taken long ago. Some at Real Madrid certainly seem to think along those lines.
On Tuesday night, David de Gea finally started ahead of Iker Casillas for the Spanish national team, as they played the Netherlands.
It is only a temporary move, though, because of manager Vicente Del Bosque’s unmoving faith in Casillas. A potential issue, however, is that Casillas may soon be moving on from Real Madrid, and the level of club or league he ends up at could force the national manager’s hand. In the meantime, Real would like to force Manchester United’s hand.
Because, by now, the situation is relatively clear. The expectation in Madrid is that Casillas will leave this summer. The Bernabeu hierarchy are desperate for De Gea to replace him, and feel there is a good chance that can happen.
Beyond that, though, it’s a bit more complicated. Casillas knows he has a strong bargaining hand given his current contract, and will not go cheaply, nor necessarily quickly. United are meanwhile getting impatient with De Gea’s own contract situation, and there is still no signature.
The younger goalkeeper was asked about finally securing a starting place on the eve of the Dutch game, and dealt with the situation diplomatically.
“Now there are three of us, and Iker will keep being number one. You don’t know what’s going to happen in the future. You have to live in the moment.”
The big problem for both Real and Spain is, at the moment, Casillas doesn’t really merit a starting place. He isn’t really that dependable any more.
He’s so much weaker on crosses, more open on one-and-ones, softer on shots, and more error-prone. Casillas just doesn’t inspire the same confidence he used to.
It would beg the question as to why Del Bosque still has such confidence in Casillas, but that is some way obvious.
For one, it is natural conservatism by a late-career coach who is probably past his best himself. Two, Casillas was key to the greatest achievement of both Del Bosque’s career and Spanish sporting history. Those two brilliant one-on-one saves from Arjen Robben in the 2010 World Cup final were almost as important to Spain’s victory as Andres Iniesta’s goal, and also represented the peak of what was a career season from Casillas. He was exceptional throughout 2009-10.
Consider his stats this season compared to then, both to show how good he was then, and how far he’s fallen
Casillas was as close to unbeatable as a goalkeeper can realistically get. He made 2.76 shots per game, compared to 2.44 now, and had a remarkable shots-to-saves ratio of 75.5%. That is far above his current rate of 70.1%.
Back then, Casillas had that classic goalkeeper’s effect of just making the space for attackers so much smaller. It was a mental thing as much as a physical one, but all down to talent.
Now, we’re not seeing the same thing - at least not from the current Casillas, and not yet from De Gea.
It is difficult to fairly compare the United youngster to that 2009-10 Casillas period, given that De Gea is still about five years (if not more) off a goalkeeper’s peak, but he is still closer to the veteran’s form now.
Of course, the key is that De Gea is also performing better than Casillas right now. Some of that is simply not reflected in figures. Whereas the World Cup-winning captain now just looks so flaky with virtually any shot that comes near him - and now how his body position buckles for efforts in a way it never used to in the past - De Gea has pulled off so many improbable saves.
The miss against Liverpool was partly so notable because such errors have been so rare this season. Otherwise, he has made so many stops he shouldn’t have, and ensured United maybe have more points than they should.
He has made more saves per game than Casillas at 2.63, more saves from inside the box at 1.7, claimed more crosses, made no fumbles that have led directly to goals, and has a shots-to-save ratio of 71.8%.
There’s little doubt about it. De Gea would be an obvious upgrade, and those stats are likely to be going in ways: Casillas’s going down, and the United keeper’s going up.
The question is which direction De Gea will be going in… and when.
