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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2016 13:50:41 GMT
Nobody here has said that. I've heard nobody I know of in real life say that. The BBC or ITV or whoever, went looking for those people. Tiny minority believe that You have selective reading or something? Go back and find where I said anybody on here had said that? Sure it's a minority but not a "tiny" one, it's a worrying one. I didn't say you did, you take what I wrote how you want. It was a general point, like you like to make sweeping statements |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2016 13:52:02 GMT
You started your post off with "Nobody here has said that." In direct response to something I said people are saying.... How else you want me to take it?
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Post by smithy2 on Jun 5, 2016 15:13:09 GMT
Similar to the Scottish vote a couple of years ago it would be dangerous for us to break away on our own right now. The world economy is still very fragile, our own growth has been very stagnant and there is a lot of social/political instability with the refugee crisis, Russia, Syria etc. Countries around the world are seeing a political shift away from the center which in itself is extremely dangerous especially if its a shift to the right like we nearly saw in Austria and like we are seeing currently in America.
Now is not the time to make a move like this.
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Post by Bestie on Jun 5, 2016 15:52:49 GMT
Similar to the Scottish vote a couple of years ago it would be dangerous for us to break away on our own right now. The world economy is still very fragile, our own growth has been very stagnant and there is a lot of social/political instability with the refugee crisis, Russia, Syria etc. Countries around the world are seeing a political shift away from the center which in itself is extremely dangerous especially if its a shift to the right like we nearly saw in Austria and like we are seeing currently in America. Now is not the time to make a move like this. Right is infinitely preferable to left. Agree we don't want extremes though. I'd go the other way and say it's the perfect time to get out on our own. Things are just getting back on an even keel and we have a fantastic opportunity to grab control of our own future at at the beginning of something. We would steal be able to make a deal to trade with EU countries (like Norway and the Swiss) and our major investors are the US, not EU countries. In fact, we are major importers of French and German goods, so it is in their interest to agree a Free Trade Deal. Furthermore, we'd have the power to negotiate with major Commonwealth countries like India and Australia for the first time in decades, plus the authority to deal with America, Japan, Brazil and China for ourselves rather than having to cede control and bargain as the EU bloc. The combined EU share actually declining and only about 25%. |
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Post by Bestie on Jun 5, 2016 16:13:30 GMT
You can't just think about right now and next year when making this decision though. It has to be a long term view as well. In three years say (after leaving) will you and everybody be better off in a fully independent UK? My view would be yes, much better off and definitely. I would say this - firstly, I think the country will be worse off in the long run anyway. The short term shock would be bad and most economic forecasts suggest we'd be worse off for leaving even as far forward as 2030. Hard to predict much further than then. Secondly, the long term for me personally could be two+ years unemployment which would just totally fuck me for years and years. Just on this, I forgot to say it earlier, youth unemployment in the EU is 20%. Hardly a resounding endorsement for your prospects. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2016 16:14:34 GMT
Bestie, you mentioned a few pages ago about the combined european police force - does that include a 'european army'? I've seen something or other about it but I'm not sure since it could well have come from the daily mail. (I only read the mail for the pictures)
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Post by Bestie on Jun 5, 2016 16:27:09 GMT
Bestie, you mentioned a few pages ago about the combined european police force - does that include a 'european army'? I've seen something or other about it but I'm not sure since it could well have come from the daily mail. (I only read the mail for the pictures) The combined EU Army has -recently - been in from The Times to the Express with varying degrees of hysteria. It is a completely separate thing to 'Europol' but has the same problems. We would be paying (yet more) money to fund and maintain a shared military whilst having to forego our own armed services. Basically. It should also be noted that the latest is Germany and France focusing on increased combined 'EU defence' rather than an outright joint military force. |
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Post by smithy2 on Jun 5, 2016 17:09:32 GMT
Similar to the Scottish vote a couple of years ago it would be dangerous for us to break away on our own right now. The world economy is still very fragile, our own growth has been very stagnant and there is a lot of social/political instability with the refugee crisis, Russia, Syria etc. Countries around the world are seeing a political shift away from the center which in itself is extremely dangerous especially if its a shift to the right like we nearly saw in Austria and like we are seeing currently in America. Now is not the time to make a move like this. Right is infinitely preferable to left. Agree we don't want extremes though. I'd go the other way and say it's the perfect time to get out on our own. Things are just getting back on an even keel and we have a fantastic opportunity to grab control of our own future at at the beginning of something. We would steal be able to make a deal to trade with EU countries (like Norway and the Swiss) and our major investors are the US, not EU countries. In fact, we are major importers of French and German goods, so it is in their interest to agree a Free Trade Deal. Furthermore, we'd have the power to negotiate with major Commonwealth countries like India and Australia for the first time in decades, plus the authority to deal with America, Japan, Brazil and China for ourselves rather than having to cede control and bargain as the EU bloc. The combined EU share actually declining and only about 25%.
The economic challenges of Brexit would be overwhelming. Britain would need to negotiate access to the European single market for its service industries, whereas EU manufacturers would automatically enjoy virtually unlimited rights to sell whatever they wanted in Britain under global WTO rules. It makes little economic difference to Europe whether Britain is an EU member or simply in the WTO. We would need an EU association agreement, similar to those negotiated with Switzerland or Norway. Which means the EU would have to be careful on what they concede to us as they would have to make similar concessions to those countries. We would have to follow all EU single market standards and regulations without any say in it and we would have to probably accept their immigration policies ( Switzerland and Norway have a higher share of immigrants than we do). If we refused these terms we would find ourselves locked out of the single market. In short the notion that we will be able to pick and choose our terms is a fantasy.
In regards to the commonwealth countries it could take years to come up with trade agreements, by that time the damage might already be done.
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Post by Bestie on Jun 5, 2016 18:49:46 GMT
Right is infinitely preferable to left. Agree we don't want extremes though. I'd go the other way and say it's the perfect time to get out on our own. Things are just getting back on an even keel and we have a fantastic opportunity to grab control of our own future at at the beginning of something. We would steal be able to make a deal to trade with EU countries (like Norway and the Swiss) and our major investors are the US, not EU countries. In fact, we are major importers of French and German goods, so it is in their interest to agree a Free Trade Deal. Furthermore, we'd have the power to negotiate with major Commonwealth countries like India and Australia for the first time in decades, plus the authority to deal with America, Japan, Brazil and China for ourselves rather than having to cede control and bargain as the EU bloc. The combined EU share actually declining and only about 25%.
The economic challenges of Brexit would be overwhelming. Britain would need to negotiate access to the European single market for its service industries, whereas EU manufacturers would automatically enjoy virtually unlimited rights to sell whatever they wanted in Britain under global WTO rules. It makes little economic difference to Europe whether Britain is an EU member or simply in the WTO. We would need an EU association agreement, similar to those negotiated with Switzerland or Norway. Which means the EU would have to be careful on what they concede to us as they would have to make similar concessions to those countries. We would have to follow all EU single market standards and regulations without any say in it and we would have to probably accept their immigration policies ( Switzerland and Norway have a higher share of immigrants than we do). If we refused these terms we would find ourselves locked out of the single market. In short the notion that we will be able to pick and choose our terms is a fantasy.
In regards to the commonwealth countries it could take years to come up with trade agreements, by that time the damage might already be done.
Much of our current legislation lines up with EU trade commitments already (obviously, seeing as we're in) so in terms of negotiations we're in a relatively strong position. In terms of this 'automatic right to sell', that simply isn't the case. The WTO option wouldn't need any prolonged negotiation either, and without the need to implement the EU standards and regulations. Our trade with EU only accounts for about 8% or our overall economy. The EFTA Switzerland have is already in question over unlimited free movement of workers/people by the way. We wouldn't 'need' an EU association agreement, but of course it would be preferable. As for negotiating other agreements with non-EU countries - like the Commonwealth - Article 50 gives up to two years to negotiate our exit. Plenty of time to progress talks with other nations, if not get things signed. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2016 19:58:21 GMT
The economic challenges of Brexit would be overwhelming. Britain would need to negotiate access to the European single market for its service industries, whereas EU manufacturers would automatically enjoy virtually unlimited rights to sell whatever they wanted in Britain under global WTO rules. It makes little economic difference to Europe whether Britain is an EU member or simply in the WTO. We would need an EU association agreement, similar to those negotiated with Switzerland or Norway. Which means the EU would have to be careful on what they concede to us as they would have to make similar concessions to those countries. We would have to follow all EU single market standards and regulations without any say in it and we would have to probably accept their immigration policies ( Switzerland and Norway have a higher share of immigrants than we do). If we refused these terms we would find ourselves locked out of the single market. In short the notion that we will be able to pick and choose our terms is a fantasy.
In regards to the commonwealth countries it could take years to come up with trade agreements, by that time the damage might already be done.
Much of our current legislation lines up with EU trade commitments already (obviously, seeing as we're in) so in terms of negotiations we're in a relatively strong position. In terms of this 'automatic right to sell', that simply isn't the case. The WTO option wouldn't need any prolonged negotiation either, and without the need to implement the EU standards and regulations. Our trade with EU only accounts for about 8% or our overall economy. The EFTA Switzerland have is already in question over unlimited free movement of workers/people by the way. We wouldn't 'need' an EU association agreement, but of course it would be preferable. As for negotiating other agreements with non-EU countries - like the Commonwealth - Article 50 gives up to two years to negotiate our exit. Plenty of time to progress talks with other nations, if not get things signed. Very good point, people seem to believe that if we vote to leave, all ties are cut the same day and we're off out on our own not able to talk to any other countries. |
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Post by smithy2 on Jun 5, 2016 20:29:34 GMT
Much of our current legislation lines up with EU trade commitments already (obviously, seeing as we're in) so in terms of negotiations we're in a relatively strong position. In terms of this 'automatic right to sell', that simply isn't the case. The WTO option wouldn't need any prolonged negotiation either, and without the need to implement the EU standards and regulations. Our trade with EU only accounts for about 8% or our overall economy. The EFTA Switzerland have is already in question over unlimited free movement of workers/people by the way. We wouldn't 'need' an EU association agreement, but of course it would be preferable. As for negotiating other agreements with non-EU countries - like the Commonwealth - Article 50 gives up to two years to negotiate our exit. Plenty of time to progress talks with other nations, if not get things signed. Very good point, people seem to believe that if we vote to leave, all ties are cut the same day and we're off out on our own not able to talk to any other countries. Problem is article 50 was designed to give the EU the upper hand at the negotiating table. We have two years to strike a deal and that deal has to be agreed unanimously with every EU country. If we can't come to an agreement they can extend the two years but we can also be put in a position where we leave without anything. A lot of what Bestie pointed out is accurate but the EU will protect its own interests first and as I mentioned we could end up giving away more political sovereignty than we have right now. Not to mention Scotland would more than likely push to leave the Union if we vote to leave. Lot of risk. |
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Post by Bestie on Jun 5, 2016 20:58:35 GMT
EU can't afford to to let us leave without anything. Whether Merkel likes it or not London is the biggest financial centre on the planet.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2016 21:00:05 GMT
Very good point, people seem to believe that if we vote to leave, all ties are cut the same day and we're off out on our own not able to talk to any other countries. Problem is article 50 was designed to give the EU the upper hand at the negotiating table. We have two years to strike a deal and that deal has to be agreed unanimously with every EU country. If we can't come to an agreement they can extend the two years but we can also be put in a position where we leave without anything. A lot of what Bestie pointed out is accurate but the EU will protect its own interests first and as I mentioned we could end up giving away more political sovereignty than we have right now. Not to mention Scotland would more than likely push to leave the Union if we vote to leave. Lot of risk. About time we did that for ourselves. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2016 21:04:27 GMT
If you read my opening post, I said it was about gut feeling because we've not been given the information. Whatever your views, not voting makes you as bad as the people you are against. Again I disagree. Why vote on something you know nothing about? Makes very little sense. The whole point of being part of a democracy is having the RIGHT to vote, the moment you start making people feel forced into doing so it counteracts that. Agreed. If you don't understand then don't vote and you're well within your rights in my opinion. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2016 21:06:26 GMT
Again I disagree. Why vote on something you know nothing about? Makes very little sense. The whole point of being part of a democracy is having the RIGHT to vote, the moment you start making people feel forced into doing so it counteracts that. Agreed. If you don't understand then don't vote and you're well within your rights in my opinion. You left, get out. |
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